OpenAI’s deal-making is out of this world.
Big Tech is all in.
Capital, credit, strategic partnerships, everyone wants a piece.
And yet…
OpenAI keeps losing money.
đź’¸ For every $1 it earns, it spends about $2.20 (Financial Times).
🔥 It's burning cash like crazy -> $8 billion loss in H1 2025.
Still, Big Tech and Wall Street keep pouring in cash.
Bubble, or the biggest leveraged play in tech history?
I’d argue for the latter.
Because OpenAI is only getting started!
Right now:
→ Only 5% of its 800M+ users are monetised.
→ 70% of its $13B ARR still comes from ChatGPT subscriptions.
What’s next is ten times bigger:
→ More focus on enterprise + API sales (massive B2B upside).
→ Renting infrastructure, AWS-style.
→ Ads (nobody has better users data than GPT).
→ Shopping commissions (already in motion).
→ Sora social network and monetisation.
→ A hardware device designed by star Jony Ive (might launch next year).
The loans and large losses scream "bubble" left and right.
Except, it's not.
