Sunday reminder:
The fertility crisis is not a global problem.
It’s a rich-world problem.
Yes, fertility rates are declining more or less everywhere.
But how much “more” or “less” makes all the difference.
And so does the starting point.
Most developed countries now sit below the 2.1 replacement rate.
Meanwhile, many other countries, especially in Africa, still have fertility rates above 5 or even 6.
This matters.
Because while Italy or Japan shrink, Nigeria already counts 100M+ people and has already surpassed many Western nations.
No serious immigration discussion can ignore this.
Declining population is not a problem in itself.
Governments and economies have many tools to adapt. Even several opportunities exist.
But world population is NOT declining.
Only the West’s is.
Global population is projected to peak in no less than 50 years.
Plenty of time for more drama around immigration debates.
AI is meant to replace retiring workers, boost productivity, and solve demographic challenges in Western countries.
But will it?
Or will history repeat itself with another great reshuffle of who lives where, just like it has for thousands of years?
