This is blowing my mind 🤯
Did you know?
The Google PageRank algorithm takes its name from Larry Page, not from web "pages"!
In fact, the first iteration was tested on academic papers rather than web pages.
Of course it was a deliberate word play 😅.
Page and Brin intended to create a web search engine from the beginning.
But still, nice discovery to wrap up the week :)
Happy Friday everybody!
Bubble or not bubble? That is the question.
Bet you've heard about the AI bubble couple of times already 😂
I am not a finance expert, so I will avoid any technical analysis. But there is one thing we must keep in mind.
💡Do you think AI will still be here in 5 or 10 years?
Or will it vanish like the Metaverse and NFTs...
I think the answer is very simple:
Clearly, AI is here to stay.
It is transforming literally every aspect of business and our everyday lives. Teenagers are already becoming more accustomed to ChatGPT than to traditional browsing.
I would argue it is comparable to the internet in the 90s, which yes triggered a bubble, but also a HUGE industry in the coming decade.
I have no idea if a bubble will pop soon, but what I know for sure is that this technology will drive unprecedented profits in the coming decades.
How?
1. Enterprise efficiency.
Same or higher output at a lower cost. It is that simple.
With AI, a single employee can do the work of three.
2. Massive consumer adoption.
ChatGPT is used by 10% of the world's population and is still growing fast. Sure, they might be burning cash now, but rest assured: the time will come when they monetise this audience LIKE CRAZY.
3. Accelerated innovation.
AI drastically speeds up the pace of innovation. We will see revolutionary new products emerge from this cycle.
Just to name some: consumer robots and self-driving cars. 🚀
What else?
AI Overviews kill clicks. It’s a fact.
The interesting part is that this affects both organic and paid traffic.
Even more intriguing... CTRs decrease even for queries that don't trigger AIO.
This report by Seer Interactive is extremely telling.
The "zero-click" trend has been accelerated by AI Overviews and chatbots, but it existed long before them.
Google has been developing a "zero-click" strategy for at least the past decade. Think of Knowledge Panels, Google Business Profiles, FAQ snippets etc.
But also,
Google Hotels, Google Flights, and even Google Shopping.
They all aim to keep users on Google as long as possible, absorbing steps of the consumer journey that used to belong to publishers and merchants.
But the irony is clear.
Google disrupted the industry in the late 90s by inventing a clean, fast search engine built to send users to the best result as quickly as possible.
This was unlike Yahoo, for example, which aimed to keep users on-site to sell more display ad impressions.
The same now applies to social networks.
None of them want users to click away.
Today, the "death of clicks" has massive repercussions for digital marketing:
how can we track user journeys across platforms if they never click?
Sure, we could use impressions or view tracking, but let's be real. That has never truly worked.
So, what to do?
Measurement techniques like incrementality experiments and Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) are thriving because they don't rely on clicks.
But generally, we need to realise that:
clicks ≠ business
Digital marketing must steer away from clicks and tracking and refocus on "old-school" concepts like share of voice, brand awareness etc
and ultimately, surprise surprise, revenue!
It’s a mindset shift.
Not everybody likes it, but it is necessary.
The last few months have been intense.
Digital Marketplaces Association Conference
ETH AI Center AI+X Summit.
Analytics Summit.
University of St.Gallen guest talk.
I presented at some. I listened at others.
One key takeaway:
AI is reshaping marketing and online business big time.
And it is here to stay. This is not a fad.
Remember the Metaverse? Dead already.
NFTs? Thanks god they're gone.
But AI is different. It is a fundamental structural shift.
Here is why:
1️⃣ It created a new category of mainstream products.
ChatGPT and Gemini are now household apps.
It is no longer about AGI or who has the "best model." It is about the best product and billions of active users.
2️⃣ It is transforming enterprise products and processes.
The formula is simple: increase output while decreasing operational costs.
We see case studies everywhere. It's happening.
3️⃣ It is reshaping the consumer journey.
AI has changed how people interact with the internet.
From discovering brands to sourcing information, user behaviour always goes through an AI chatbot first.
Forget the "AI bubble" headlines or stock prices.
This is about rethinking the way we do business;
the rules of the game have changed.
Last week, I moderated a workshop at the Digital Marketplaces Association conference in Zurich.
The topic... You guessed it. AI. 😅
Actually, almost every session was about AI.
But unlike most events I’ve attended recently, the focus wasn't on efficiency or operational processes.
It was on something much more critical.
How AI chatbots are fundamentally reshaping people's behaviour online.
From search queries to questions.
From browsing to reading answers.
From clicks to mentions and direct traffic.
This has massive implications for digital marketing and online businesses in general.
No one is immune.
It was fascinating to discuss this with a group of like-minded business leaders.
We looked at the current situation, the risks, and most importantly the opportunities.
Here is the consensus:
- We are just at the beginning. But the shift is happening.
- The risks are real. But the opportunities are greater.
- There's no playbook! we'll still need to figure.
On the last point,
someone did ask me whether I could share a full guide on digital marketing in the age of AI.
Well, I wish it existed!
Exciting times ahead!
I’ve had many discussions here on LinkedIn about who is leading the AI Chatbot race.
There is a lot of noise about new features and personal opinions.
But if we look at the actual usage data, the answer is boringly simple.
ChatGPT is the undisputed king.👑
I was looking at this desktop user panel by Datos, A Semrush Company:
- ChatGPT: used by over 40% of users.
- Gemini: growing, yes. But still less than 10% market share.
Gemini has less than a quarter of GPT’s users. Despite the Google ecosystem, Android default etc.
OpenAI released a paper a couple of months ago that explains exactly what’s happening.
They analyzed how people actually use ChatGPT.
The results were unexpected.
It’s not for coding. It’s not for work.
It’s mostly used for non-work activities. 🏠
• How-to guides
• Learning new topics
• Searching for quick info
Essentially, ChatGPT has become the ultimate personal assistant for everyday life.
And that is their moat.
For now.
The other tools are fighting for the "specialist" slice: coding, enterprise workflow, etc
But for the average person, there is only one default. For now.
Brand vs. Performance.
The hottest debate in marketing is coming to an end.
In the 2010s, we lived in the golden age of performance marketing.
Google and Facebook sold us a perfect dream:
- Invest $1. Get $5 back.
- Track every single user journey, from ad click to purchase.
It worked. For a while.
Until two asteroids hit the marketing planet:
1. Privacy killed the cookie 🍪
-> GDPR and browsers like Safari blocked third-party cookies.
The bridge between ad click and purchase started to collapse.
2. AI broke the funnel
-> “Upper funnel" discovery now happens in ChatGPT or AI Overviews.
These conversations are critical for purchase decisions. But they generate zero clicks.
Think about it.
Users discover your brand by talking to ChatGPT, and then visit your site directly to complete a sale. Which ad brought the sale? Impossible to tell.
So, what now?
A landmark study by WARC found that when brand and performance activities merge, they multiply ROAS and sales, both short and long term.
Whether we like it or not, the tech giants are already forcing us there.
Look at Google Performance Max or Demand Gen.
They are AI engines designed to optimise results across the entire user journey.
With or without clicks.
AI is solving the problem that AI created 😅
So,
No more Brand vs. Performance.
Now it’s Brand x Performance x AI.
Are you in?
I don't buy individual stocks.
But the day OpenAI goes public, I’m buying. Immediately.
Here’s why:
1. It's already mainstream.
→ 10% of the world's adult population now uses ChatGPT.
→ It reached 1/3 of Instagram users, in less than three years.
→ Over 70% of all GPT conversations are non-work related.
2. Massive room for growth.
→ The 18-25 age group sends nearly half of all messages.
→ Growth in developing countries is exploding.
3. It's becoming the "Everything App".
It isn't just a chatbot anymore. It's the gateway to the web:
→ Personal Assistant: ChatGPT
→ Entertainment and social networking: Sora
→ Browser: Atlas
→ Shopping: Instant Checkout
→ App Store: GPT Apps (essentially the new Apple App Store)
→ Messaging: Group Chats (just announced!)
4. Huge potential for monetisation.
Yes, it still burns billions.
But it's already at $13B+ annual revenue.
Facebook took years to even make a single dollar.
OpenAI did it on day one.
The path is clear:
→ Ads (huge opportunity).
→ Commissions from checkouts.
→ More tiered subscriptions (free with ads, Lite?, Plus, Pro, Enterprise, etc).
→ Massive B2B potential.
Meanwhile...
The other Big Tech giants are too large and slow to keep pace.
Yes, even Google.
Gemini is growing fast but its market share is still a fraction of ChatGPT.
Many are trapped in the innovator's dilemma.
OpenAI doesn't fear any dilemma.
It managed to disrupt the most powerful companies on earth right where they were strongest: AI & machine learning.
Nobody else has ever done that.
What else should I add?
Microsoft is moving to the light side of the force.
It’s building a content marketplace where publishers and creators can sell their work directly to AI chatbots.
Auction or fixed price, still unclear.
Why this is a huge deal:
Publishers are getting crushed.
Search traffic is collapsing after “Google Zero”, or the so-called "death of clicks".
Less traffic means less ad revenue.
Meanwhile, AI chatbots keep using their content for free…
without even sending traffic back 😅.
This model is clearly not sustainable.
Sure, OpenAI has begun striking content licensing deals.
For example with the Financial Times.
But these are slow, maybe annual negotiations, while AI usage grows exponentially in the meantime.
At this point, publishers need a Big Tech giant to finally take their side.
If one moves, the rest will follow.
Problem is,
Microsoft’s marketplace would only feed CoPilot. 😐
And CoPilot is minuscule compared to the main players.
Still, it’s a start.
And Microsoft’s stake in OpenAI could make the ripple bigger.
Will it work?
Hard to tell.
But one thing is certain:
How this shift will evolve will either save the open web… or kill it.
Marketers, what can we learn from this chart?
1️⃣ Reddit alone gets 40% of all LLM citations.
That’s a massively skewed distribution toward the top.
2️⃣ The top-cited brands are huge, high-traffic websites.
LLMs clearly favour big names.
Makes sense, they’re statistical engines.
The more a brand is known, the more chances it shows up in the model’s training data.
3️⃣ Most of them are platforms.
Not publishers or blogs, not retailers, not producers.
So...
If you’re a small business,
forget about “LLM visibility.” That’s not your game.
If you’re a large business (but not in the top 20),
you can play. But keep in mind, platforms will still win.
If you’re in the top 20,
congrats, you made it.
But now hold that position tight, the challengers are more aggressive than ever.
Two obvious takeaways:
-> Be on all these platforms.
Reddit is the most cited domain, but it doesn’t have content of its own. It’s your content that will be surfaced!
Same story for most of the other top domains.
-> If you’re small, grow!
Sounds obvious, but it’s worth repeating.
How? online PR and wide-reach ads.
