Hey👋,
I'm Giacomo

OpenAI’s deal-making is out of this world.

Big Tech is all in.
Capital, credit, strategic partnerships, everyone wants a piece.

And yet…
OpenAI keeps losing money.

💸 For every $1 it earns, it spends about $2.20 (Financial Times).
🔥 It's burning cash like crazy -> $8 billion loss in H1 2025.

Still, Big Tech and Wall Street keep pouring in cash.

Bubble, or the biggest leveraged play in tech history?

I’d argue for the latter.

Because OpenAI is only getting started!

Right now:
→ Only 5% of its 800M+ users are monetised.
→ 70% of its $13B ARR still comes from ChatGPT subscriptions.

What’s next is ten times bigger:

→ More focus on enterprise + API sales (massive B2B upside).
→ Renting infrastructure, AWS-style.
→ Ads (nobody has better users data than GPT).
→ Shopping commissions (already in motion).
→ Sora social network and monetisation.
→ A hardware device designed by star Jony Ive (might launch next year).

The loans and large losses scream "bubble" left and right.

Except, it's not.

🚨 Just spotted on Google,

it seems you can hide ads now!

I'm sure many will overlook the button and struggle even more to tell ads from organic results.

But what if people do notice and keep hiding ads?

What's the point of selling ads if users can simply hide them?

I'm sure Google is just experimenting with it, probably trying to find a new compromise between organic results, ads and AI overviews.

But if now, this is huge!

Sunday thoughts:

What is marketing?

After 10 years in the industry, I still struggle to give a single, convincing answer.

But something dawned on me lately.

I might not know what marketing is,
but I know what marketing should do.

💡Marketing should make your prospective customers “feel” something.

Because great marketing is all about feelings.

It isn’t about what it communicates.
It’s about how it makes you feel when it does.

When I see an ad by Audemars Piguet, I feel wealthy.

Even though I’m not.
Even though I’ll never afford one.
Even though I’m not even into watches.
Even though my $80 Swatch makes me perfectly happy.

But feeling wealthy is a good feeling.
And I’ll always associate this brand with a good feeling.

That’s all that matters.

And If I ever become wealthy, indeed Audemars Piguet will be the first brand that comes to mind.

When I see marketing from The Economist, I feel smart.

That’s why I’m a customer.

Not because I am objectively smart, but because I like to “feel” smart.

Even better, I like to feel smarter than others.

The simple fact that the ad was served to me (and possibly not to someone else) already reinforces my feeling.

And again, that’s all that matters.

Some marketing makes you feel like sh*t.
On purpose.

The promise?
Buy, and you’ll stop feeling like sh*t.
Buy, and you’ll be happy again.

The classic “Buy now! tomorrow the price will double” just makes you feel FOMO, stress, and discomfort.

And that’s why you buy: to stop feeling like that.

It’s now proven that ChatGPT is increasingly used as a personal assistant, as a life coach or even as a friend.

Our interactions with consumer AI are highly emotional. Who hasn’t argued with their chatbot?

As marketing increasingly flows through AI conversations, its emotional side, not the technical one, will only grow in importance.

Want more money?

Switch job.

Old story. Everybody knows it.

But it’s not just about higher wages.

👉 It’s about pace of innovation.

New hires bring new ideas.
Sometimes they disrupt decade-old processes.

Frequent reshuffle forces innovation.

The US is leading this trend, while Italy is a negative outlier.

Many elements explain this gap.

But the best companies even in the US retain people for the long run.

Think of Doug McMillon, who went from summer intern to Walmart CEO in over 30 years at the company!

As always, the best soup is the one with just the right temperature.

Between hopping jobs every year and staying 20+ years, there’s a massive in-between that companies should encourage.

Especially now. In the age of AI.

Companies must accept to be disrupted from the inside, by their own people, rather than waiting for outsiders.

Great companies attract talents who bring great ideas. Day one. Year five. Year ten.

But they must listen. And trust.

If not, those ideas will go elsewhere.
And so will the money.

Big Tech nailed this.
It’s not unusual to see employees staying 10+ years while still driving crazy innovation.

Something Italian, and more broadly, European, companies should definitely learn from.

Sunday reminder:

The fertility crisis is not a global problem.
It’s a rich-world problem.

Yes, fertility rates are declining more or less everywhere.
But how much “more” or “less” makes all the difference.
And so does the starting point.

Most developed countries now sit below the 2.1 replacement rate.

Meanwhile, many other countries, especially in Africa, still have fertility rates above 5 or even 6.

This matters.
Because while Italy or Japan shrink, Nigeria already counts 100M+ people and has already surpassed many Western nations.

No serious immigration discussion can ignore this.

Declining population is not a problem in itself.

Governments and economies have many tools to adapt. Even several opportunities exist.

But world population is NOT declining.
Only the West’s is.

Global population is projected to peak in no less than 50 years.

Plenty of time for more drama around immigration debates.

AI is meant to replace retiring workers, boost productivity, and solve demographic challenges in Western countries.

But will it?

Or will history repeat itself with another great reshuffle of who lives where, just like it has for thousands of years?

Switzerland is consistently at the top of the world’s most innovative countries.

Essentially, it’s the place to be!

US only third place despite AI breakthrough, crazy!

Oh, and among the top 15 countries, 8 are in Europe. More than half 😏.

Just to add some data to the never-ending Europe vs US discussion.

Over half (57%) of Google clicks never leave Google!

Let that sink in.

That means less than half of all clicks actually land on other websites.

Websites run by businesses like mine and yours.

What’s interesting is that this hasn’t shifted much with the launch of AI Overviews at the end of 2024.

External clicks are down slightly year-over-year, but nothing dramatic.

This is because the “death of clicks” started long before AI:

-> Knowledge boxes
-> Featured snippets
-> Social platforms punishing external links

AI isn’t the beginning.
It’s just the continuation.

The trend is clear and marketers need to adapt.

Whether it fits their legacy beliefs or not.

Couldn't agree more with this post.

A new era of marketing is here,
whether we like it or not.

Yet, many technical marketers are still in denial.

Their "hacks" just don't work anymore.

👉 Channel attribution?
Dead ⚰️
Killed by privacy regulations, death of cookies and death of clicks.

👉 Granular targeting?
Dead ⚰️
Killed by AI media buying and privacy regulations.

👉 SEO hacks?
Dead ⚰️
Killed by AI search.

👉 Funnel?
Dead ⚰️
Killed by the Messy Middle and the new AI-mediated consumer journey.

So what's left?

The FUNDAMENTALS of brand building.
Just like in the pre-internet era.

Bold ideas.
Creativity.
Strong PR.
Quality Content.
Broad reach.

These are the marketing elements that will define successful brands going forward.

Sunday thoughts:

Working in marketing doesn’t feel like work.

This week I was talking to friends in different industries, and I was struck by how much “boring” work fills their days:

• Daily 9am standups
• Structured “agile” routines
• Clearly defined tasks
• Endless slides
• Jira updates
• Annoying clients

For me, it’s the opposite.

No rigid tasks, no daily meetings.
Every day looks different.

One day I might spend hours on Slack and meetings. The next I’m deep-diving into a new AI trend.

Almost every week there’s something new in digital marketing that I need to explore.

And that’s what I love.

It reminds me of my music days:
hours spent experimenting with sounds, learning new riffs, chasing inspiration etc.

I loved it,
but I had no clear structure, and maybe that’s why I never became good enough.

Is it the same happening now in my marketing career?

Hard to say.

But here’s what I know for sure:

Waking up not knowing how the day will unfold gives me motivation.

It keeps my passion alive.

And considering I now get paid for what feels like play...

whatever I’m doing seems not to be that wrong. ☺️

Curious,
are there other marketers who feel the same way?

🚀 Just show up.

That’s it. That’s the game.

Google’s landmark Messy Middle research found something unexpected:

👉 30% of consumers will pick you over their favorite brand…
Simply because you showed up, as a possible alternative.

That was back in 2020. An eternity ago.
Yet in the age of AI, it’s more relevant than ever.

Why?
Because when people chat with AI bots, they’re shown options.

And the moment your brand gets mentioned, you suddenly have a 30% chance of being chosen.

Even if the consumer was thinking of someone else!

That’s the power of showing up.

Where?
Everywhere!

Across forums. Socials. Reviews. Search. Industry publications.

Because the more you show up, the more likely AI will recall you.

💡that recall alone is enough to swing 30% of consumers.