"Hey baby, I got a bonus, let's go celebrate!"
"Well done, how much?"
"1,000,000,000,000 dollars."
It sounds so insane that actually makes sense.
To get the cash, Elon Musk must:
- Raise Tesla’s valuation to $8.5tn (twice the most valuable company today).
- Boost earnings to $400bn, about 24× what it earns now.
- Sell millions of Optimus robots.
- Sell millions of autonomous driving subscriptions.
Will he make it?
I think so. I don’t see why not.
The only real risk here, is Musk himself.
What if something happens to him before that?
He almost died at least twice.
How much is Tesla worth without Musk?
Probably just a fraction of today’s valuation.
Maybe close to nothing actually.
Remember,
Tesla is already one of the most overvalued stocks in America.
P/E ratio 298.3.
For context,
NVIDIA is at 53.5, and Meta at “just” 27.4.
So the Musk premium is already priced in.
But if he actually delivers, the world will be a much happier place.
Millions of robots doing our work.
Cheap transportation.
No road accidents.
No city pollution.
We’ll definitely get there, sooner or later.
I was in China recently and I got a glimpse of this future.
The only question is when,
and whether Tesla will be the first to get there.
