The Gstaad Guy is a masterpiece of influencer marketing and branding. Here’s why:

With "only" around 800k followers on Instagram and TikTok, the Gstaad Guy has developed two distinct online personas.

First, there's Constance, a 30-something bastion of old money, living between high-society London and the luxurious ski-resort town of Gstaad in Switzerland. To quote him, “if you know how to pronounce Gstaad, you know”.

Then, there's Constance's American cousin, Colton, a Gen Z new-money obsessed with street fashion and matcha, splitting his time between LA and New York.

Both are parodies of real characters you might encounter in the private members clubs of Marylebone or at NYC fashion shows.

Although the Gstaad Guy has kept his true identity a secret, Constance and Colton have become influencers in their own right.

Constance has launched his own rosé wine brand, Palais Constance, which is served in upscale clubs and restaurants. He is officially dressed by Loro Piana and Audemars Piguet and has sunglasses collaborations with the Swedish brand CHIMI. Meanwhile, Colton has established himself as a Gen Z street-fashion icon.

People even text Constance for tips on where to eat in London, as if he were a real person.

The Gstaad Guy achieved the impossible task of representing, and likely becoming, the very individuals he mocks. Forbes reports that the rich love him and make up a significant portion of his relatively small following.

Thanks to his double life, the Gstaad Guy can appeal to different audiences and expand the range of brands for potential collaborations.

While Constance and Colton look antithetical, the brilliance lies in the fact that they actually represent two sides of the same coin. The contrast between old money and new, tradition and hype, encapsulates the essence of modern luxury.

The Gstaad Guy has understood this perfectly!

What do you know of OnlyFans?

• It’s one the most successful European tech companies, founded and based in London with no plans to move to Silicon Valley.
• It’s a very private company with no plans to go public. 75% is owned by porn-billionaire Leonid Radvinsky (more on him later), with the rest owned by founder Tim Stokely, his father Guy and brother Thomas.
• Founded in 2016, it has gone through spectacular growth since the pandemic. With almost 239m “fans” in 2022, it has tripled since 2020 and 18x since 2019.
• It’s also doing very well financially, generating $5.55bn gross revenue in 2022, of which it takes a 20% cut. Revenue before taxes in 2022 was $525m, up 22% YoY and almost 9x vs 2020. Its owner reportedly took home dividends of $338m in 2023, the equivalent of $1.3m per working day. No wonder they don’t want to go public!
• OnlyFans is trying to diversify from its core adult-content business by branching into non-adult streaming with OnlyFansTV and recruiting more non-adult celebrities.
• The new CEO, Keily Blair, is a former lawyer specializing in cyber and data privacy. She has 15+ years of experience working with renowned law firms in London. Fan fact, she was recently denied the ability to open a bank account due to her association with the company.
• She doesn’t like the word “porn”.
  In a recent interview with the Financial Times, she clarified that while OnlyFans is "open" to adult content, it doesn't necessarily represent its main offering. However, she explained they do not report on content category, hence they cannot determine the proportion of creators who do not produce any adult content. "Creators' performance is not an important metric."
  It's hard to believe, given that their entire business model relies on commissions from creators' revenue!
• In the same interview, she states that they encourage all employees, including herself, to open an OnlyFans account and follow creators. She particularly likes Becky Goodwin and Whitney Cummings. This seems to be part of an effort to normalise the use of OnlyFans.
• She also emphasises the strength of their monetisation strategy, which increasingly focuses on micro-transactions such as tips and "unlock content", rather than recurring subscriptions. This approach gives users more financial control. She notes that she herself has many subscriptions, for which she "probably watches three shows and yet still pays for the entire membership".

My take:

OnlyFans is clearly a porn website.

Even the other categories available on the site, including OnlyFansTV, often serve just as a funnel to more expensive adult content.

The founder, Tim Stokely, was named "The king of homemade porn" by the Sunday Times, a reference to his other porn ventures like Customs4U. The current primary owner, Leonid Radvinsky, has a shady history with dubious adult websites dating back to the late 90s and early 2000s. Do you recall the endless chain of spammy links that ultimately led to porn sites? That was him. In fact, when he invested in OnlyFans in 2018, he pushed for a greater focus on adult content.

The monetisation model is highly profitable, but it is also evil.

Actress Bella Thorne earned $1m on her first day after signing up by promising to send nudes to her fans for $200. However, she ended up sending a photo in lingerie instead of “nudes”.

Many creators follow a similar strategy, enticing users with the promise of increasingly provocative content that often never materialises. It's a vicious cycle reminiscent of gambling, where people keep playing in the hope of winning big and recouping their losses, an outcome that almost never occurs.

OnlyFans is growing up, from a 90s-style scammy site to an adult big tech that drains its users, not of their personal data but directly of their money.

Not sure what is worse.

‍

Houston, we have a problem!

Young men and women are drifting apart.

Two decades ago, young men and women generally shared similar world views. Now, there is a significant divide, with men tending towards conservative positions and women towards liberal ones.

The gap is widening at a worrying speed, as evidenced by herds of angry young men around the world. In South Korea, for example, nearly 80% of men in their 20s say they are discriminated against, leading to the election of an overtly anti-feminist president in 2022.

Political polarisation and extreme positions can be dangerous, as they may lead to violence and totalitarianism.

There are underlying issues that contribute to cause this divide.

Women tend to be more educated than men, with 46% of them holding a tertiary degree vs 35% of their men counterparts in the EU in 2022. In general, better education generates more liberal ideas and vice versa.

Men in the rich world tend to struggle at school, start working earlier and retire later than women, while dying younger. Therefore, better working conditions for women are sometimes seen as unfair.

However, neither the media nor politics aim to address these issues, instead they pour gas on the fire.

Mainstream media has leant “left” (far from the left I grew up with and still support), engaging in a daily bombing campaign against “toxic masculinity” and supporting a deranged politically-correct rhetoric. Both women and men avidly read these news, further solidifying their extreme positions, becoming more feminist on one hand and angrier on the other. And this is very good for business!

Meanwhile, the real world has gone in the complete opposite direction.

Right-wing and extreme-right-wing parties have massively grown in popularity in recent years. Some are even led by a woman, like Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Marine Le Pen in France. Hard to believe these parties were voted only by men.

Characters like Donald Trump urge angry men (and women) to take the “red pill”, feeding them with lies and conspiracy theories.

Both sides benefit from and capitalise on the situation.

People with moderate views, who are probably the majority, are left out of the equation.

Being a moderate young(ish) men today is harder than before, as he's frequently scrutinised and doubted. But the irony is that being a young women today is also harder than before!

Today's women often face immense pressure to meet expectations associated with their acquired rights. For instance, they are expected to have a successful career, which is challenging in itself, regardless of gender, while also having children, possibly at least 2.1 to support demographic needs. They are encouraged to freely express their sexuality, yet expected to establish a stable family, likely with a men who is less educated than them, see previous point.

This contradictory message harms our youth.

It leaves them in confusion due to a lack of clear role models. Increasingly, they are dropping out of school and struggling with commitment, while the level of violence rises.

Maybe it’s time to reassess?

‍

‍

‍

‍

The Epic battle against Apple continues, and it reveals awkward details about the mobile app market.

The Timeline so far:

• Summer 2020: Epic Games introduces a direct payment system in its popular game, Fortnite, on iOS and Android, to bypass Apple’s and Google’s 30% cut on in-app purchases.
• August 13, 2020: In response, Apple and Google remove Fortnite from the App Store and Play Store.
• August 13, 2020: Epic Games files lawsuits against Apple and Google, accusing them of anti-competitive practices and monopolistic behaviour.
• August 17, 2020: Epic Games launches the #FreeFortnite campaign, parodying Apple's famous "1984" advertisement.
• May 3, 2021: The trial between Epic Games and Apple begins.
• September 10, 2021: The judge issues her ruling. Epic loses the case as Apple is not a monopolist, and its 30% commission rate is lawful. Fortnite will remain out of the App Store. However, the ruling also mandates that Apple must allow developers to direct users to external payment methods.
• November 2023: The trial between Epic Games and Google begins.
• December 2023: Epics Games wins against Google; the search giant runs an illegal monopoly with the Play store. However, it’s still unclear what Epic Games exactly won (Epic never sued for monetary damages); the parties are still discussing. But one thing is certain, this victory will pave the way for increased freedom on the Play Store and Android.
• February 16, 2024: The EU introduces its Digital Markets Act (DMA), which was effectively enforced on March 6th. Under this act, Epic Games plans to develop the Epic Games Store as an alternative app marketplace on iOS within the EU. This store will feature third-party apps, Fortnite, and other mobile games owned and affiliated with Epic. It's expected to resemble its existing desktop counterpart, charging a 12% commission to third-party apps. Epic Games applies for and obtains an Apple Developer Program account, needed to build native apps for iOS.
• February 23, 2024: In a long email, Apple asks Epic Games for written assurance that, this time, they will “act in good faith” and will honour Apple’s terms of service.
• February 23, 2024: Tim Sweeney, Epic’s CEO, personally responds to Apple with a brief statement. “[We are] acting in good faith and will comply with all terms of current and future agreements with Apple”.
• March 2, 2024: Apple is not happy about Sweeney’s quick reply and terminates Epic’s developer account.
• March 8, 2024: Following an inquiry from the EU, Apple reinstates Epic’s developer account.

On the one hand, Apple owns the hardware (the iPhone) and it should be free to manage it how it’s best for the business. Additionally, by maintaining tight control over iOS and the App Store, they can guarantee cyber safety and user privacy.

On the other hand, it's evident they're abusing their dominant position. They ban apps at their discretion, disallow advertising of external payment flows, and prohibit third-party stores.

At the same time, Epic Games is also a leader in its market. Ultimately, their objective is to circumvent Apple's 30% commission to boost their profit margin, not to make the world a better place.

This story isn't only about a legal battle. It uncovers awkward details on how Apple and Google operates in the app market.

Why did Google lose its legal battle against Epic Games while Apple won, even though they were sued for essentially the same reason?

Several factors contribute, but fundamentally, it's due to the market definitions used by the judges in the trials. For Apple, the market was defined as "digital mobile gaming transactions," where Apple isn't a monopolist and faces competition from companies like Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo, who also charge similar commissions on their stores. For Google, the market was defined as "Android app distribution and Android in-app billing services," where Google is the clear monopolist. Bear in mind that Android is an open-source platform.

Some uncomfortable details emerged from the trials.

Google has been making sweetheart deals with the largest apps on its store, notably Spotify and Netflix. Reports indicate that Spotify was permitted to pay 0% fees on the Play Store when using its own payment system, or only 4% (as opposed to the standard 15%) when using Google's payment system.

Netflix was offered a similar deal, but refused and kept subscription payments only available on the web version.

It seems that Google has made great efforts to conceal the details of these deals, even deleting some Google Chat messages from their records. This suggests that more revealing details may have been uncovered otherwise!

Apple reportedly followed this practice as well, offering special treatment to Netflix.

The truth is, without clear regulations and enforcement, big tech companies will continue to employ discriminatory and unfair practices.

Some might argue that as private enterprises, they should be free to conduct business as they wished. However, given their size, the consequences of their actions extend far beyond their target markets. In fact, big tech also serve as strategic, intelligence, and military assets for the governments where they're based, playing a crucial role in global affairs and ultimately on our lives.

It may be time to reconsider the extent of power that a private enterprise can wield.

🚨Breaking news🚨
Apple hit by its first-ever EU fine over anti-competitive behaviour.

The €1.8bn fine was triggered by a formal complaint raised by Spotify against Apple Music in 2019.

‍

The Background.

Investigations into Apple's anti-competitive behaviour in the EU have been ongoing for years.

The App Store on iOS takes a 30% cut from all in-app payments and subscriptions for third-party apps, such as Spotify.

The issue is that Apple doesn't let third-party apps advertise alternative payment methods besides the Apple Store. Therefore, even if third-party apps wished to offer lower prices for users subscribing directly and not through the app store, they are unable to do so.

This creates a problem of transparency towards the end user and is seen as an abuse of dominant position.

‍

The Trigger

As if that wasn't enough, Apple began launching its own apps, directly competing with some of the most popular ones on the store. For instance, Apple Music was launched to rival Spotify, and Apple TV to compete with Netflix.

It goes without saying that Apple Music doesn't pay the 30% cut, which allows them to potentially offer lower subscription prices.

Spotify was not the only one to be upset by Apple's practices. Meta was also among the “victims”.

You may recall the story of Apple's Tracking Transparency in 2022:

Apple provided its users with the option to opt out of tracking by third-party apps, which is essential for effective ad sales for companies like Meta.

Problem is, Apple's own apps don't provide the same option, and users can still be targeted by personalised advertising sold directly by Apple through its Apple Search Ads service. Once again, this was seen as anti-competitive behaviour.

‍

The Future

‍Daniel Ek, CEO and founder of Spotify, published a video on Linkedin yesterday saying he’s happy about the EU’s decision but he’s still skeptical about whether the fine will actually change Apple’s behaviour.

He believes that Apple will just ignore the ruling. Maybe they will apply some small changes here and there, but will not fundamentally change the way they operate. He mentions how similar fines Apple received in other countries like South Korea or The Netherlands also didn’t achieve their ultimate objective.

‍

The Underlying Problem

There is a fundamental problem over the openness of the internet.

Today’s internet is practically owned and operated by a handful of American tech behemoths. Ai doesn’t seem to be solving this problem. In fact, it looks quite the opposite.

From this perspective, the recent lawsuit raised by Elon Musk against OpenAI seems reasonable.

Last week, Universal Music Publishing Group released this statement on their Instagram account.
‍

The background

Universal Music Group and TikTok clashed over royalty payments for songs affiliated with the music label and played on the social media platform.

Negotiations failed because TikTok reportedly wanted to pay only a low-single digit percentage of advertising revenue, in contrast to the 20% that YouTube, for example, pays to Universal.

Therefore, Universal withdrew their license, forcing TikTok to stop playing its music catalogue, which includes artists like Taylor Swift and Drake.

‍

The Impact.

Over the past few weeks, TikTok has muted all recordings owned by Universal. But it didn’t stop there. It also muted songs written or co-written by artists affiliated with the major.

Some analysts predict that 60-80% of all the popular music on TikTok will be muted, although the Chinese giant claims the figure is closer to 30%. Still, it’s a huge deal, impacting at least one-third of all songs played on TikTok.

‍

The Future.

Reality is, TikTok can live without mainstream hit songs.

Why?

Because regular users can now create catchy tunes using AI. In fact, TikTok plans to pay an advertising cut to AI-music creators as well.

AI-generated music is perfectly suited for accompanying TikTok videos. In fact, it may even perform better as it can be tailored specifically for this purpose. In near the future, we may have tools to create music directly from existing videos.

Like every industry, the music industry is also being disrupted by AI. The only way to survive is by improving the quality of its output. The formula for mass-produced summer hits won’t work anymore, at least from a streaming point of view.

Instead, TikTok should be used as a marketing tool by labels and artists to generate revenue elsewhere, such as live shows. Taylor Swift demonstrated this model with her Eras Tour.

As a marketing professional myself I know that marketing is a cost center, not a profit one, at least not directly. Therefore, I don’t see how music companies can expect significant revenue from a marketing too like TikTok.

‍

Americans do it bigger!

If you've ever skied in Andermatt, Switzerland, you might have not realised that you were a guest of the Americans. The same would be true if you recently skied in Crans-Montana.

Indeed, both ski resorts are operated by the American giant Vail Resorts.

Forget about local flavour and traditional food.‍ Vail Resorts owns and operates more than 40 resorts across the US, Canada, Australia, and Switzerland. Their acquisitions of the Andermatt and Crans-Montana ski resorts in March 2022 and November 2023 respectively, marked their entry into the European market.

In Andermatt, they quickly injected millions to upgrade lifts, improve snow-making, enhance hospitality and more.

But more importantly, they included the Swiss resort into their signature international format, the Epic Pass.

With the Epic Pass, skiers can choose to ski at any of the 40+ resorts owned by the company. This allows them to literally follow the snow across continents!

Given that day-passes at American resorts are priced nearly $300, a season Epic Pass costing around $900 looks like a bargain. For a New Yorker, flying 6-7 hours to Zurich or 4 to Colorado plus the driving doesn’t make a big difference.

With the number of overnight stays by North Americans quadrupling in the last year, it’s now common to hear Yankee accents on the slopes of Andermatt.

The entry of the Americans has driven up real estate prices, by 12% in the last year, reaching CHF 18-19k per square meter. International companies, such as the Egyptian-Montenegrin-Swiss Orascom Development, are undertaking major real estate projects in the area. Crans-Montana will probably follow suit.

The model of large public companies operating multiple ski resorts is new to Europe.

In fact, most European resorts are managed by local entities. For example, the Dolomiti Superski area in Italy and the Arlberg area in Austria, among the largest of the Alps, are managed by local companies bearing the same name.

An exception is the French Compagnie des Alpes, a public company listed in Paris which operates some of largest ski resorts in France.

Due to climate change, running ski resorts is becoming an expensive endeavour. It requires increasingly larger capital, something Americans don’t lack of.

However, this might come at the expense of the local alpine favour, which I believe is essential for an enjoyable ski holiday in Europe.

The Economist: Why right-wing Italians love hobbits‍

Now it all makes sense! I've never been into in fantasy, including The Lord of The Rings or Harry Potter, now I know why.

Right-wing ideologies and populism have gained increasing traction in the western world in recent years. But I would argue that there’s little ideology in their rhetoric.

Even Benito Mussolini, Italy's dictator in the 1920s and 1930s and a father figure of the Italian right-wing, didn't pursue any specific ideology. He began his political career as a socialist (left-wing), but seized an opportunity on the right and jumped on it. Despite coming from an anti-clerical background, he brokered deals with the church. He also adopted Hitler's anti-Semitism, even though he himself did not fit into the "Aryan" model.

What truly unites the global right-wing is not ideology, but rather a denial of reality and a common enemy.

They like to construct their own reality, filled with conspiracies, underlying narratives, villains and heroes. No wonder they love The Lord of The Rings!

Anyone capable of rationally explaining the current reality is considered an enemy.

They call them “radical-chic”, the number one villan in the right-wing’s narrative. Enemy number two is usually immigrants, especially those of non-christian backgrounds. Problem is, “radical-chic” economists and professors are able to explain why immigration is good!

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t approve the insane wave of left political correctness either, which is also far from reality and actually fuels the right-wing’s resentment.

Understanding reality as it truly is takes time, effort and, unfortunately, money. It may involve traveling and potentially learning new languages to fully comprehend different cultures. It may involve studying at expensive universities. It also requires self-questioning, not easy to accomplish in this society.

These are all things that supporters of Meloni and Trump would rather not do or simply cannot do. Instead, they find comfort in their fantasy worlds populated with dragons and orcs.

Now the question is... what impact will Ai and Virtual Reality have on this?

I don’t even want to think about it!

History repeats.

NVIDIA is leading the Ai boom of the 2020s, while Cisco was the champion of the internet infrastructure race in the late 1990s.

The fate of Cisco and its peers is well known. Will it happen the same to the Ai industry?‍

The Economist has compared the proliferation of Ai apps to the invention of tractors, while the Financial Times likens it to the early days of the internet.

Both tractors and the internet took a long time to replace their predecessors and establish themselves as labor and economic revolutions.

The Dot Com bubble didn't halt the internet; quite the contrary. However, it took at least another decade for today's tech giants to emerge, many of which didn't even exist in 2000.

Same could happen to the Ai industry and its champions.

Today, chips are king. But they quickly become commodities.

Modern chips, currently in high demand, will become cheaper and in large supply in maybe a couple of years, potentially threatening Nvidia's revenue.

The shortages experienced in 2021 and 2022 were promptly fixed, resulting in overcapacity.

Among others, Samsung Semiconductor had to decrease production last year due to a growing chip surplus, while its Japanese counterpart, KIOXIA Group, reported a record loss of $1.7 bn. Meanwhile, global silicon wafer shipments fell 14.3% last year.

Oversupply, fuelled by too much cash too soon, was also at hearth of the Telecom crush in 2000-2002.

High valuations and hype don’t always (almost never) reflect the reality of an industry!

Facebook turns 20 this year, but it’s a walking dead.

Or, is it?…

Facebook remains the most popular social media app worldwide, with over 3bn active users as of January 2024 (up ~2% YoY), ahead of YouTube and Instagram. Not bad for a walking dead. 🤔

However, the social network is dead.

I’ve written before about the switch between social networking and social media, but now something even deeper is happening.

We used to network with our friends and acquittances, then with strangers, eventually with fans. Then we stopped networking all together, spending time on social media mostly for entertainment, consuming content (mostly video) made by professional companies or individual creators, much like TV.

Now, we’re back to networking, but not with humans. We’re “networking” with an Ai algorithm.

When we open Facebook or TikTok, we’re talking to an Ai that chooses content for us. It is an Ai algorithm that really chooses how long we should spend on the app, what ads we should watch and what creators we should “network” with.

However, the need for online social networking remains. According to a Morning Consult study, only 30% of people interviewed said they would share a movie recommendation on social media, behind the 43% who chose text or email and the 35% who opted for group chats. Same happens for news and politics.

This explains the increasing popularity of chat apps. WhatsApp is the third most popular social media app worldwide, Facebook Messenger and Telegram the 7th and 8th respectively, ahead of Snap Inc. and X.

This has massive implication for digital marketing.

On the one hand, marketers need to realise that they’re not marketing to people anymore, but rather to Ai algorithms, who in turn will talk to real people. Even though some platforms claim they prioritise quality content vs Ai-optimised one (Google search, for example), currently it doesn’t seem to be happening much.

On the other hand, marketers need to find other ways to talk to real people. WhatsApp and Instagram channels are good candidates. You won’t get rid of Meta platforms easily!

Many have declared the premature death of Facebook before, even as early as 2009 when The New York Times titled "Facebook Exodus".

Reality is, long live The Facebook!

Social media are more popular than ever and advertising revenue is flowing in. 🤑

Meta Ads revenue grew by 16% in 2023 YoY, representing a whopping 98% of total revenue! Net income (after tax) increased by 69% in 2023, at a margin of 29%. 😱

Facebook couldn't have entered its 20s in a better way!